بررسی رابطه بین آلودگی هوای شهر و شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه حسابداری ، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.

2 کارشناس ارشد حسابداری از دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مشهد.

چکیده

مقدمه: آلودگی هوا یکی از نگرانی‌های اقتصادی و بهداشتی مهم برای انسان‌هاست و با توجه به روند رو به رشد آن به یکی از مهم‌ترین دغدغه‌های اقتصاددانان و سیاست‌گذاران کشورها تبدیل شده است. با وجود این که در پژوهش‌های زیادی آثار آلودگی هوا بر سلامت و بهداشت انسان‌ها بررسی شده اما در رابطه با اثر آلودگی هوا بر شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار پژوهش‌های اندکی انجام شده است. در این راستا، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی رابطه آلودگی هوای شهر تهران با شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار است.
روش پژوهش: این پژوهش کاربردی و از نوع پس‌رویدادی است. در پژوهش حاضر از شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار و شاخص کیفیت هوای تهران به همراه پنج عنصر تشکیل‌دهنده آن شامل مونوکسید کربن، ازون سطح زمین، دی‌اکسید نیتروژن، دی‌اکسید گوگرد و ذرات معلق کم‌تر از 10 میکرون در بازه زمانی 93-1383 استفاده شده است. آزمون فرضیه‌های پژوهش با بکارگیری الگوی رگرسیون سری زمانی و روش تجزیه و تحلیل برداری سری زمانی انجام شد.
یافته‌ها: نتایج پژوهش حاکی از نبود رابطه معنادار بین آلودگی هوا و شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است. هم‌چنین، بین اجزای آلودگی هوا و شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار رابطه معناداری مشاهده نشد. افزون براین، ورود اثر تقویمی روز اول هفته نیز رابطه بین آلودگی هوا و شاخص‌های بورس اوراق بهادار را تعدیل نمی‌کند.
نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به این که آلودگی هوا به نوعی با زندگی روزمره افراد در شهرهای بزرگ عجین شده است به نظر می‌رسد به این مسئله به عنوان یک پدیده طبیعی نگریسته می‌شود. از این رو، شایسته است که مسئولان محیط زیست کشور از روش‌های مؤثرتری به منظور اطلاع‌رسانی بیشتر به آحاد جامعه در زمینه آثار آلودگی هوا بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی استفاده کنند.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Relationship between Air Pollution of the City and Tehran Stock Exchange Indices

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Moradi 1
  • Z. Marandi 2
  • A. Yavar Baghestan 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
2 M. A. in Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad Branch.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Air pollution is one of the most important economic and health concerns for humen, and due to its growing trend, it has been formed the main concerns of economists and policymakers of all countries. While many researches have been conducted on the effects of air pollution on humens' health, few researches have been done on the effect of air pollution on the Tehran Stock Exchange indices. In this regard, the aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between air pollution and the Tehran Stock Exchange indices.
Method: The type of this research is Ex-Post Facto and it is an applied research. In the present research, the Tehran Stock Exchange indices and Tehran's Air Quality Index during 2004-2014 have been used along with five composing elements: Carbon Monoxide, Ozone of the ground surface, Nitrogen Dioxide, Sulphur Dioxide, and the Particulates below 10 Micrometer. Testing the hypotheses of the research has been performed using Time Series Regression and Vector Autoregression models.
Results: The results of the research state that there is no significant relationship between air pollution and Tehran Stock Exchange indices. Moreover, there is no meaningful relationship between the components of air pollution and the Stocks Exchange indices. Besides, the calendar effect of the first day of the week does not adjust the relationship between air pollution and the Stock Exchange indices.
Conclusion: Given that air pollution has linked with the daily lives of people in big cities in some ways, this issue has been considered a natural phenomenon. Hence, it is worthy for the administrators of Environmental Protection Organization of the country to apply more effective methods in order to inform the society futherly of the effects of air pollution on the economic activities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air Pollution
  • Price Cash Return Index
  • Stock Exchange
  • Total Index
1      Cole, S.; Thommas, S.; and Z. Bilal (2011). “Prices or Knowledge? What Drives Demand for Financial Services in Emerging Markets?”, The Jornal of Finance, Vol. 66, No. 6, pp. 1967-1933.

2      Vithessonthi, C. and J. Tongurai (2015). “Financial Markets Development, Business Cycles, and Bank Risk in South America”, Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 36, pp. 472-484.

3      Ahmed, A. D. and K. K. Mmolainyane (2014). “Financial Integration, Capital Market Development and Economic Performance: Empirical Evidence from Botswana”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 42, pp.1-14.

4      Schwarz, N. (1990). Feelings as Information: Informational and Motivational Functions of Affective States, Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of Social Behavior, Vol. 2, 1st Edition, New York: Guilford Press.

5      Lucey, B. M. and M. Dowling (2005). “The Role of Feeling in Investor Decision-Making”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 211-238.

6      Raff, H.; Goldmann, R. W.; and E. P. Kindwall (1985). “Adrenocortical Function after Acute Carbon Monoxide Exposure in Humans”, Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 40, No. 2, pp. 88-90.

7      Hsieh, G. C.; Sharma R. P.; and R. D. Parker (1992). “Hypothalamic-Pituitary- Adrenocortical Axis Activity and Immune Function after Oral Exposure to Benzene and Toluene”, Immunopharmacology, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 23-31.

8      Tomei, F.; Rosati, M. V.; Ciarrocca, M.; Baccolo, T. P.; Gaballo, M.; Caciari, T.; and E. Tomao (2003). “Plasma Cortisol Levels and Workers Exposed to Urban Pollutants”, Industrial Health, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 320-326.

9      Lepori, G. M. (2015). “Air Pollution and Stock Returns: Evidence from a Natural Experiment”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 25-42.

10  Sagar, A.; Bhattacharya, M.; and V. Joon (2007). “A Comparative Study of Air Pollution-Related Morbidity among Exposed Population of Delhi”, Indian Journal of Community Medicine, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 268-273.

11  Amandad, O.; Salehi, M.; and M. Fallahi (2015). “Modelling and Predicting the Stock Price of the Pharmaceutical and Chemical Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange via New Methods and Models”, Journal of Health Accounting, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 1-19. [In Persian]

12  Borji Dowlat Abadi, E. (2008). “Financial Behavior: The Dominant Paradigm in the Financial Markets”, Tadbir, Vol. 19, No. 191, pp. 31-36. [In Persian]

13  Mishra, K. C. and M. J. Metilda (2015). “A Study on the Impact of Investment Experience, Gender, and Level of Education on Overconfidence and Self-Attribution Bias”, IIMB Management Review, Vol. 27, pp. 228-239.

14  Morris, W. N. (2000). “Some Thoughts about Mood and Its Regulation”, Psychological Inquiry, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 200-202.

15  Ebrahimpour, M.; Ilami Roud Maajani, F.; and H. Khosravi Zadband (2015). “Environmental Accounting and the Challenges towards It in Iran”, Journal of Health Accounting, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 108-128. [In Persian]

16  Sepasi, S. and M. Esmaili Kejani (2015). “Green Accounting: A Model for Environmental Disclosure”, Journal of Health Accounting, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 1-19. [In Persian]

17  Fatahi, Sh.; Nazifi Naini, M.; and S. Abbaspour (2013). “The Relationship between Economic Growth, Health and Air Pollution in Iran”, Tousee Sterajec, No. 33, pp. 167-187. [In Persian]

18  Levy, T. and J. Yagil (2013). “Air Pollution and Stock Returns-Extensions and International Perspective”, International Association of Scientific Innovation and Research, Vol. 4, No.1, pp. 1-14.

19  Air Quality Control Company (2015). “The Definition of Air Pollution”, Available at: http://air.tehran.ir/. [Online] [10 August 2015] [In Persian]

20  Schiffman, S. S.; Miller, E. A.; Sattely, S.; Mark, S.; and B. G. Graham (1995). “The Effect of Environmental Odors Emanating from Commercial Swine Operations on the Mood of Nearby Residents”, Brain Research Bulletin, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 369-375.

21  Lundberg, A. (1996). “Psychiatric Aspects of Air Pollution”, Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Vol. 114, No. 2, pp. 227-231.

22  Slovic, P. and E. Peters (2006). “Risk Perception and Affect”, Current Directions in Psychological Science, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 322-325.

23  Pennings, J. M. E. and P. Garcia (2009). “The Informational Content of the Shape of Utility Functions: Financial Strategic Behavior”, Managerial and Decision Economics, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 83-90.

24  Edward, M. and J. R. Saunders (1993). “Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 5, pp. 1337-1345.

25  Hirshleifer, D. and T. Shumway (2003). “Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 1009-1032.

26  Arkes, H. R.; Herren, L. T.; and A. M. Isen (1988). “The Role of Potential Loss in the Influence of Affect on Risk Taking Behavior”, Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Making Processes, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 181-193.

27  Cao, M. and J. Wei (2005). “Stock Market Returns: A Note on Temperature Anomaly”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1559-1573.

28  Hu, X.; Li, O. Z.; and Y. Lin (2014). “Particles, Pollutions and Prices”, Singapore Seminar Management University, Available at: abfer.org/doc s/2015/program-5/particles-pollutions-and-prices.pdf. [Online] [10 August 2015]

29  Zhang, Y.; Jiang, Y.; and Y. Guo (2016). “The Effects of Haze Pollution on Stock Performances: Evidence from China”, Applied Economics, Vol. 48. pp. 1-12.

30  Huang, J.; Xu, N.; and H. Yu (2016). “Pollution and Performance: Do Investors Make Worse Trades on Hazy Days?”, Available at: http://ssrn.com /abstract=2846165.[Online] [10 August 2015]

31  Mashayekh, Sh. and B. Shafizadeh (2015). “Air Pollution and Stock Return in the Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange”, Journal of Health Accounting, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 61-76. [In Persian]

32  Chang, S-Ch.; Chen, S-S.; Chou , R. K.; and Y-H. Lin (2008). “Weather and Intraday Patterns in Stock Returns and Trading Activity”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 32, No. 9, pp. 1754-1766.

33  Luo, Y.; Qian, X.; and J. Ren (2015). “Initial Public Offerings and Air Pollution: Evidence from China”, Journal of Asia Business Studies, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 99-114.

34  Levy, T. and J. Yagil (2011). “Air Pollution and Stock Returns in the US”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 374-383.

35  Lu, J. and R. K. Chou (2012). “Does the Weather have Impacts on Returns and Trading Activities in Order-Driven Stock Markets? Evidence from China”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 79-93.

36  Li, Q. and C. H. Peng (2016). “The Stock Market Effect of Air Pollution: Evidence from China”, Applied Economics, Vol. 48, No. 36, pp. 1-20.

37  Lucey, B. M. (2000). “Anomalous Daily Seasonality in Ireland?”, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Vol. 7, No. 10, pp. 637-640.

38  Young-Hyun, C.; Oliver, L.; and W. Yoon-Jae (2007). “Are there Monday Effects in Stock Returns: A Stochastic Dominance Approach”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 14, No. 5, pp. 736-755.

39  Chan, H. L. and K. Y. Woo (2012). “Day-of-the-week Effect on the Return and Conditional Variance of the H-shares Index in Hong Kong”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 243-249.

40  Obeid Gharaibeh, A. M. and A. S. Al Azmi (2015). “Test of the Day of the Week Effect: The Case of Kuwait Stock Exchange”, Asian Economic and Financial Review, Vol. 5, No. 5, pp. 757-765.

41   Abalala, T. and  R. Sollis (2015). “The Saturday Effect: An Interesting Anomaly in the Saudi Stock Market”, Applied Economics, Vol. 47, No. 58, pp. 6317-6330.

42  Islam, R. and N. Sultana (2015). “Day of the Week Effect on Stock Return and Volatility: Evidence from Chittagong Stock Exchange”, European Journal of Business and Management, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp.165-172.

43  Xiao, B. (2016). “The Monthly Effect and the Day of the Week Effect in the American Stock Market”, International Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 11-17.

44  Çinko, M.; Avci, E.; Aybars, A.; and M. Öner (2015). “Analyzing the Existence of the Day of the Week Effect in Selected Developed Country Stock Exchanges”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 5, pp. 96-108.

45  Yahyazadefar, M.; Abou Noori, E.; and H. Shababi (2005). “The Effect of Weekday on the Stock Return of the Tehran Stock Exchange and Its Comparing with the other Emerging Markets (An Empirical Analysis)”, Journal of Accounting Advances (Previously Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities), Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 179-195. [In Persian]

46  Bazzazan, F.; Shirin Bakhshe Masoule, Sh.; and S. Safari (2012). “Investigating the Effect of Weekday on the Stock Return by Using Bootstrapping Fuzzy–GARCH Regression”, Journal of Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, Vol. 5, No. 13, pp. 99-110. [In Persian]

47  Abounoori, E. and R. Izadi (2006). “Evaluating the Effect of Weekday on the Tehran Stock Exchange by ARCH and GARCH Models”, Journal of Economic Research, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 163-190. [In Persian]

48  Badri, A. and M. Sadeghi (2005). “Investigating the Effect of Weekday on Return, Volatility and Trading Volume on the Tehran Stock Exchange”, Journal of Business Management, Vol. 5, Nos. 17 and 18, pp. 55-84. [In Persian]

49  Ghariblou, R. and R. Sharafi (2014). “Identifying the Behavioral Financial Effects with an Emphasis on Return and Weekday Volume on the Tehran Stock Exchange”, Journal of Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 15-24. [In Persian]

50  Jamalianpour, M. and Gh. Mahdavi (2013). “The Effects of Climate and Seasonal Variables on the Tehran Stock Market Liquidity”, Journal of Financial Accounting Research, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 73-88. [In Persian]

51  Tehran Stock Exchange Corporation (2016). “Tehran Exchange Price Index?”, Available at: http://www. irbourse.com/cms/Default.aspx?tabid=222. [Online] [07 April 2016] [In Persian]

52   French, K. R. (1980). “Stock Returns and the Weekend Effect”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 55-69. 

53  Jahandideh, M. and A. Shirvani (2011). “Forecasting the Sea Surface Temperature of the Persian Gulf Using the Vector Autoregression Processes”, Journal Management System, Vol. 4, No. 8, pp. 53-61. [In Persian]

54  Fotros, M.; Ghaffari, H.; and A. Shahbazi (2010). “Studying the Relationship between Air Pollution and Economic Growth of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)”, Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 61-78. [In Persian]

55  Firooz Zare, A. and M. Ghorbani (2011). “Investigating the Welfare Effects of Various Policies Change in Iran's Air Pollution (Case Study: Mashhad)”, Urban Management, Vol. 9, No. 27. pp. 317-331. [In Persian]

56  Moghaddasi, R. and R. Rahimi (2010). “Investigating the Relationship between Air Pollution and Economic Growth of the Selected Provinces: An Implication for Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Journal of Financial Economics and Development, Vol. 4, No. 11, pp. 19-37. [In Persian]